The July German IFO beat estimates, but the improvement was driven by expectations while current conditions weakened. The headline index rose on a jump in expectations, even as the current conditions ...

Small-cap outperformance has been driven mostly by within-sector stock selection, not differences in sector weighting. With the small-cap earnings catch-up reversing and leverage rising, we would fade ...

Our clients expect sticky inflation to persist. Last week’s client poll saw a clear majority expecting inflation to stay sticky near current levels over the next 12 months. The conclusions were ...

The JPY’s decline reflects rising inflation expectations rather than fiscal risk, and is likely to persist until the BoJ turns more hawkish. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief FICC ...

Investors aiming to reduce exposure to AI-related market volatility should seek refuge in the equal-weight S&P 500. The equal-weight index (EWI) meaningfully outperformed the cap-weighted index ...

The South African Reserve Bank will not be able to hold rates for long. The SARB held its policy rate at 7%, defying expectations for a 25 bps hike. With inflation reaccelerating above the target band ...

The Strait of Hormuz is a unique geographical feature. Other than the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits that allow passage ...

China's economy is slowing, but policymakers are unlikely to launch broad-based stimulus in H2. Meanwhile, the emergence of ...

Our GeoMacro strategists conclude that narratives of US institutional erosion are overstated. The rule of law has weakened over the past two decades, but our colleagues stress that core constitutional ...

中国の経済は減速しているが、政策当局がH2に幅広い景気刺激策を打ち出す可能性は低い。一方、「Kimi moment」の出現は、北京が技術の高度化に注力していることと、同国のAI能力が急速に ...

A more aggressive BoJ hiking stance is needed to stabilize the JPY. Recent price action has fueled speculation that Japanese officials now see yen weakness as an inflation risk, and that the BoJ may ...

The recent European data improvement is unlikely to last. The July eurozone ZEW improved and beat estimates, but the positive impulse was likely energy-driven. Current conditions, however, remain ...