The July German IFO beat estimates, but the improvement was driven by expectations while current conditions weakened. The headline index rose on a jump in expectations, even as the current conditions ...
Small-cap outperformance has been driven mostly by within-sector stock selection, not differences in sector weighting. With the small-cap earnings catch-up reversing and leverage rising, we would fade ...
Our clients expect sticky inflation to persist. Last week’s client poll saw a clear majority expecting inflation to stay sticky near current levels over the next 12 months. The conclusions were ...
The JPY’s decline reflects rising inflation expectations rather than fiscal risk, and is likely to persist until the BoJ turns more hawkish. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief FICC ...
Investors aiming to reduce exposure to AI-related market volatility should seek refuge in the equal-weight S&P 500. The equal-weight index (EWI) meaningfully outperformed the cap-weighted index ...
The South African Reserve Bank will not be able to hold rates for long. The SARB held its policy rate at 7%, defying expectations for a 25 bps hike. With inflation reaccelerating above the target band ...
The Strait of Hormuz is a unique geographical feature. Other than the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits that allow passage ...
China's economy is slowing, but policymakers are unlikely to launch broad-based stimulus in H2. Meanwhile, the emergence of ...
Our GeoMacro strategists conclude that narratives of US institutional erosion are overstated. The rule of law has weakened over the past two decades, but our colleagues stress that core constitutional ...
The Supreme Court, Senate, Fed, and other institutions have proved resilient so far under the Trump administration. US ...
Our FICC strategists stay overweight global inflation-linked bonds (ILBs), betting that markets underprice the inflation risk from energy and shipping disruptions. Within this stance, our colleagues ...
In this Strategy Insight, we assess how Middle East-related energy and shipping disruptions are shaping the global inflation outlook and review the implications for inflation-linked bond markets. We ...
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