Measures of beliefs, sentiment, and narratives often send recession signals that differ from those in hard data, defined as ...
Firm heterogeneity in financial constraints is a quantitatively important driver of how monetary policy transmits to ...
Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, ...
Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat muted but largely stable during the mid-May through June reporting ...
Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), ...
Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...
The Inflation Shock Momentum Index (ISMI) updates data on coordinated directional pressure across the distribution of category-level inflation rates. This monthly indicator is intended to track ...
The new SF Fed Policy Calibration Tool is designed to help construct a monetary policy path that aligns with one’s views of the economy and policy objectives. Applying the tool to recent tariff ...
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