Measures of beliefs, sentiment, and narratives often send recession signals that differ from those in hard data, defined as ...

Firm heterogeneity in financial constraints is a quantitatively important driver of how monetary policy transmits to ...

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat muted but largely stable during the mid-May through June reporting ...

Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 SBCS reported using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), ...

We recently collaborated with other researchers and central banks to ask senior business executives about AI in their own firms. Our study, issued in February, revealed that AI adoption is already ...

The rapid spread of generative AI (AI) tools is reshaping the workplace at a remarkable rate. Yet relatively little is known about whether workers have access to these tools, how the tools affect ...

Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...

Firms frequently revise not only their expectations, but also how uncertain they feel about those expectations. Using the U.S ...