Nassim Taleb on a bet most people would take: 70% chance to win $1, 30% chance to lose $1 - should you bet?His answer: in most cases no. Not because of risk aversion. Because it's a bad strategy in multi-period realitySame Kelly Criterion math that powers Shannon's information theory - there's a sweet spot, and most behavioral finance papers ignore itBet too much and the law of large numbers ruins you. Bet too little and you leave returns on the tablethis is what every quant learns before they t